BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Oregon

All statesGeneralists

Belted Kingfisher in Oregon has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-56%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Belted Kingfisher Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Belted Kingfisher has fallen sharply in Oregon: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Belted Kingfisher Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Oregon is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Oregon is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.000.45
20260.180.000.45
20270.180.000.44
20280.170.000.44
20290.170.000.43

Belted Kingfisher Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sparta2020011973
Ochoco420031994
Svensen319921990
Elkton320241974
Merrill320031996
Harlan 2320242012
Deschutes220132012
Wedderburn220241970
Garfield220092009
Pendleton220241978
Lapham Res.219981998
Nicolai Mtn.220241993
Emigrant Lake 2220242024
Canby220241996
Salem220151994
Monument220132007
Desolation219991999
Fisher220081998
Riley Peak220162007
Scappoose220232000
Timber120171975
Tualatin120141976
Ordnance119781978
Albee120001973
Imnaha120241968

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.