BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGeneralists

Belted Kingfisher in Tennessee has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-49%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Belted Kingfisher Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Belted Kingfisher in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Belted Kingfisher Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Tennessee is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Tennessee is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.280.000.65
20260.270.000.64
20270.260.000.62
20280.240.000.61
20290.230.000.60

Belted Kingfisher Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wrigley420221966
Peytonsville320231966
Mcfarland319931967
Pawpaw220091974
Tibbs220211979
Pond Creek220231966
Indian Mound219871967
Campbellsville220191966
Union Hill220221967
Elk Valley220221970
Walland219891966
Allens Brdge220231973
Cades Cove219901990
Signal Mtn120241979
Tiptonville120131971
Moscow120101967
Brownsville120241981
Whiteville120161969
Big Sandy120221966
Mansfield120241969
Sweetlips120051969
Silerton120221971
Trenton119921972
Humboldt120241966
Collinwood120241966

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.