BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

Belted Kingfisher in Arkansas has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-38%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Belted Kingfisher Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Belted Kingfisher in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Belted Kingfisher Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.000.32
20260.090.000.32
20270.080.000.31
20280.070.000.30
20290.070.000.30

Belted Kingfisher Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Old Milo220091967
Locust Bayou220221967
Saffell220171969
Coal Hill220101970
Lurton220161974
Avoca220011967
Gillett220162014
Nance220221992
Eudora120041969
Ramsey119861969
Stamps120181967
Hope120091969
Ashdown119921973
Hughes119851981
West Tyler119721972
South Bend120211972
Crows119901968
Poyen120001967
Hollywood119941969
Blakely119961968
Waldron119961996
Harrisburg119901980
Whitton119911991
Augusta119931983
Rupert119951967

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.