BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesWetland birds

Belted Kingfisher in Arkansas has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-73%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Belted Kingfisher Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Belted Kingfisher has fallen sharply in Arkansas: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Belted Kingfisher Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.080.000.31
20270.070.000.30
20280.070.000.30
20290.060.000.29
20300.060.000.29

Belted Kingfisher Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Old Milo220091967
Locust Bayou220221967
Saffell220171969
Coal Hill220101970
Lurton220161974
Avoca220011967
Gillett220162014
Nance220221992
Eudora120041969
Ramsey119861969
Stamps120181967
Hope120091969
Ashdown119921973
Hughes119851981
West Tyler119721972
South Bend120251972
Crows119901968
Poyen120001967
Hollywood119941969
Blakely119961968
Waldron119961996
Harrisburg119901980
Whitton119911991
Augusta119931983
Rupert119951967

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.