BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Belted Kingfisher in North Dakota has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-53%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Belted Kingfisher Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Belted Kingfisher has fallen sharply in North Dakota: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Belted Kingfisher Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±173.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±173.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±173.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.000.23
20260.110.000.23
20270.110.000.23
20280.110.000.23
20290.110.000.23

Belted Kingfisher Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cooperstown220241970
Dickinson220181970
Lark219711971
Gorham220151976
Sheyenne Lk220181985
Forman120241984
Walcott119891971
Carson120192001
Edgeley119981998
Emerado120211983
Wimbledon119971997
Nash119971980
Rolla119751975
Regan119851973
Dunn Center119931993
Carpio120171969
Tobacco119741974
Stanley120221970
Denbigh120191977
Bowman119811981
Zap120182017
Roosevelt Pk120161983
Golva120092009
Bentley120121988
Glen Ullin120092000

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.