BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesWetland birds

Belted Kingfisher in North Dakota has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-34%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Belted Kingfisher Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Belted Kingfisher in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Belted Kingfisher Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±147.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±147.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±147.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.110.000.23
20270.110.000.23
20280.110.000.23
20290.110.000.23
20300.110.000.23

Belted Kingfisher Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dickinson220181970
Lark219711971
Gorham220151976
Sheyenne Lk220181985
Forman120251984
Walcott119891971
Carson120192001
Edgeley120251998
Emerado120211983
Cooperstown120251970
Wimbledon119971997
Nash119971980
Rolla119751975
Regan119851973
Dunn Center119931993
Carpio120171969
Tobacco119741974
Stanley120221970
Denbigh120191977
Bowman119811981
Zap120182017
Roosevelt Pk120161983
Golva120092009
Bentley120121988
Glen Ullin120092000

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.