BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Belted Kingfisher In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestWetland birds

Belted Kingfisher in Atlantic Northern Forest has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-51%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
149Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Belted Kingfisher has fallen sharply in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Belted Kingfisher In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.200.030.38
20270.200.020.37
20280.190.010.36
20290.180.000.36
20300.170.000.35

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CastineMAINE41986
Moose RiverMAINE42005
HudsonMAINE32016
Clayton LakeMAINE32001
Clayton Lake 2MAINE32011
MilanNEW-HAMPSHIRE32024
LandgroveVERMONT32007
New HartfordCONNECTICUT22010
South ArmMAINE21997
FreedomMAINE22007
NorthfieldMAINE21980
GreenvilleMAINE22019
Priestly Br.MAINE22011
Baker LakeMAINE22001
Heron LakeMAINE21993
Lake MoxieMAINE22021
AndoverMAINE22010
Brownfield 2MAINE22018
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE22024
Mt ChocoruaNEW-HAMPSHIRE22024
Crawford NotNEW-HAMPSHIRE21973
Jeffers NtchNEW-HAMPSHIRE22024
Old ForgeNEW-YORK21992
InletNEW-YORK22017
Dexter LakeNEW-YORK21969

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.