BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Belted Kingfisher In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Belted Kingfisher in Shortgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 95% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-95%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Belted Kingfisher has collapsed in Shortgrass Prairie: down 95% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Belted Kingfisher In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±197.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±197.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±197.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.22
20250.000.000.22
20260.000.000.22
20270.000.000.22
20280.000.000.22

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HudsonCOLORADO22016
Fort MorganCOLORADO22021
HardestyOKLAHOMA21975
AbarrCOLORADO11986
LamarCOLORADO11982
GilpinCOLORADO11990
Two ButtesCOLORADO11980
TrincheraCOLORADO12000
Cone MtnCOLORADO11994
HaswellCOLORADO12005
JulesburgCOLORADO12018
TimpasCOLORADO12000
ElbertCOLORADO12005
ArsenalCOLORADO12000
Arsenal 2COLORADO12021
LakinKANSAS11994
PaxtonNEBRASKA12015
DaltonNEBRASKA12004
KimballNEBRASKA11998
Murray LakeNEBRASKA11989
CrawfordNEBRASKA12010
Agate 2NEBRASKA12007
MarslandNEBRASKA12018
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA12023
FarleyNEW-MEXICO11996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.