BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Belted Kingfisher In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Belted Kingfisher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-33%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Belted Kingfisher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Belted Kingfisher In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.260.020.51
20260.260.010.50
20270.250.010.49
20280.240.000.49
20290.240.000.48

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AusterlitzNEW-YORK42004
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA42023
OneidaNEW-YORK32008
SalemNEW-YORK32021
North EastonNEW-YORK32017
ParishvilleNEW-YORK32023
LattasburgOHIO32024
HiramOHIO32018
CatskillsNEW-YORK21989
GhentNEW-YORK22016
Ballston LkNEW-YORK21995
TrumansburgNEW-YORK22023
Canadice LNEW-YORK22024
CastileNEW-YORK22013
NashvilleNEW-YORK22018
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK22022
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK22024
Alder CreekNEW-YORK22002
N WilmurtNEW-YORK21993
OgdensburgNEW-YORK22023
NaplesNEW-YORK22023
GarrettsvileOHIO21989
Valley CityOHIO22000
Slippery RkPENNSYLVANIA21990
AkeleyPENNSYLVANIA21976

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.