BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Belted Kingfisher In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesWetland birds

Belted Kingfisher in Badlands and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-54%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Belted Kingfisher has fallen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Belted Kingfisher In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.030.000.15
20270.030.000.15
20280.020.000.14
20290.020.000.14
20300.020.000.14

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HighwoodMONTANA32022
FlatwillowMONTANA31975
WebsterMONTANA21981
Reed PointMONTANA22024
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA22018
LarkNORTH-DAKOTA21971
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA22015
RosebudSOUTH-DAKOTA21973
RockyfordSOUTH-DAKOTA21967
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA21996
White RiverSOUTH-DAKOTA21997
EnglewoodSOUTH-DAKOTA22017
NorbeckSOUTH-DAKOTA22002
LeroyMONTANA12014
RoyMONTANA12019
Two DotMONTANA12024
ShawmutMONTANA12023
ForsythMONTANA12016
PowdervilleMONTANA11974
AlbionMONTANA12018
Hehn DrawMONTANA12025
Bull Mtn.MONTANA12016
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA11993
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA11974
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA11981

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.