BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Belted Kingfisher In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Belted Kingfisher in Northern Pacific Rainforest has held roughly steady: down 9% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-9%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
138Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Belted Kingfisher in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Belted Kingfisher In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 0.77 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.12–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.47Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–0.8395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 0.77 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.12–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.490.140.84
20260.490.130.84
20270.480.130.84
20280.480.130.83
20290.470.120.83

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RaymondWASHINGTON62021
Bunker HillWASHINGTON52024
CordovaALASKA42019
YakutatALASKA42024
Thorne Bay 2ALASKA42024
Zimovia StrtALASKA42024
Stikine RiverALASKA42024
OrleansCALIFORNIA41983
Port AngelesWASHINGTON42024
Raymond 2WASHINGTON42024
Thorne BayALASKA32012
Sitka (Short)ALASKA31992
Wrangell (Short)ALASKA31984
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA32019
SvensenOREGON31992
ElktonOREGON32024
Harlan 2OREGON32024
TaholahWASHINGTON32022
Bay ViewWASHINGTON32003
Juneau AltALASKA21985
JuneauALASKA22021
CraigALASKA22024
KetchikanALASKA22021
Beaver CreekALASKA21977
PetersburgALASKA21987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.