BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great-tailed Grackle Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesGeneralists

Great-tailed Grackle in Oklahoma has surged: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

18×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great-tailed Grackle Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great-tailed Grackle has surged in Oklahoma: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Great-tailed Grackle Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.00–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.00–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.80.007.3
20262.80.007.3
20272.80.007.3
20282.80.007.3
20292.80.007.3

Great-tailed Grackle Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Great-tailed Grackle in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cookietown42220061968
Hooker10720241992
Jet3420161992
Keyes3020241999
Beggs2720231968
Reed1220161976
Indianola920241970
Tatums720181997
Grimes620021990
Felt620241993
Cooperton620211998
Hollis620231995
Clear Lake620242015
Ft Sill East619941994
Tegarden520051978
Hardesty520061975
Sickles520181993
Mcalester419911971
Peoria420151979
Blanco319901978
Phillips320051970
Ardmore320041967
Verden320091969
Collinsville320191991
Wainwright320031992

Great-tailed Grackle Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.