BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great-tailed Grackle Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGeneralists

Great-tailed Grackle in Kansas has surged: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

24×Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great-tailed Grackle Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great-tailed Grackle has surged in Kansas: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Great-tailed Grackle Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.0 (95% range 0.85–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.85–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±78.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.0 (95% range 0.85–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.743.1
20261.90.763.1
20272.00.793.1
20282.00.823.2
20292.00.853.2

Great-tailed Grackle Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Great-tailed Grackle in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Plymell3220242000
Leoville1720131995
St John1420171975
Dalton820051990
Wreford820231995
Kanopolis820071992
Gove820022002
Galesburg720231986
Wellington720241975
Leoti720222000
Minneapolis620092002
Covert620142014
Ruleton620222008
Grigston620242006
Barclay520211983
Albert520181971
Missler520191979
Le Loup520122003
Susank520082000
Dover420221987
Rock Creek420022002
Hopewell420102010
Lapland320161995
Morehead320242000
Reece320162007

Great-tailed Grackle Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.