BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great-tailed Grackle Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Great-tailed Grackle in Utah has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

-37%Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great-tailed Grackle Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great-tailed Grackle in Utah. See the full index history below.

Great-tailed Grackle Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Utah is projected to fall about 66% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±133%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-66%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±133%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Utah is projected to fall about 66% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±133%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19912029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.11
20260.040.000.11
20270.040.000.11
20280.040.000.11
20290.040.000.11

Great-tailed Grackle Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Great-tailed Grackle in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Goshen420242024
Callao420162016
Hatch320082008
Wellington 3220132013
Willow Creek219971997
Hanna220242024
Moab220011991
Newcastle120101997
Shivwitz120232023
Beaver120232000
Bear River120232007
Pine Creek120002000

Great-tailed Grackle Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.