BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great-tailed Grackle Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

Great-tailed Grackle in Arkansas has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-42%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
20YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great-tailed Grackle Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great-tailed Grackle in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Great-tailed Grackle Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Arkansas is projected to rise about 48% by 2027 — from 0.06 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±292.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+48%Change by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±292.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Arkansas is projected to rise about 48% by 2027 — from 0.06 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±292.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.090.000.23
20240.090.000.23
20250.090.000.23
20260.080.000.22
20270.080.000.22

Great-tailed Grackle Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Great-tailed Grackle in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Centerton420112011
Hope220221993
Ashdown119891976
Massard119901986
Avoca120091992

Great-tailed Grackle Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisiowakansaslouisianamissourinebraskanevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.