BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great-tailed Grackle Population Trend in Nevada

All statesGeneralists

Great-tailed Grackle in Nevada has surged: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

+119%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great-tailed Grackle Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great-tailed Grackle has surged in Nevada: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

Great-tailed Grackle Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Nevada is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 0.75 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±376.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.46Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±376.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Nevada is projected to fall about 39% by 2029 — from 0.75 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±376.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19892029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.450.001.1
20260.450.001.1
20270.450.001.1
20280.460.001.1
20290.460.001.1

Great-tailed Grackle Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Great-tailed Grackle in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beatty1620241994
Val Of Fire520062006
Eureka320112009
Willis320242024
Jean Lake220131997
Nelson220162010
Ash Meadows220121993
Meadow Vally220241997
Ruby Valley120002000
Ruby Valley 2120162016
Majors Place119891989
Fallon120232005
Gardnerville 2120182018
Dobbin Creek120172017
Hiko120141998

Great-tailed Grackle Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.