BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great-tailed Grackle Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGeneralists

Great-tailed Grackle in Nebraska has surged: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 2001.

+119%Since 2001TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great-tailed Grackle Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great-tailed Grackle has surged in Nebraska: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 2001.

Great-tailed Grackle Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±192.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±192.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±192.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19902029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.000.40
20260.140.000.40
20270.140.000.39
20280.140.000.39
20290.140.000.39

Great-tailed Grackle Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Great-tailed Grackle in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stratton620192019
Sumner320102010
Bartley320242024
Murray Lake320232002
Petersburg320232023
Kearney220232011
Paxton220082008
Wheeler Co220232023
Maxwell220232023
Lyons220242024
Kimball120152015
Agate 2120232023
Benkelman120142000
Kenesaw120242004
Crescent Lk120142009
Almeria119901990
Dalton120152015
Champion120182018

Great-tailed Grackle Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.