BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great-tailed Grackle Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Great-tailed Grackle in Texas has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-47%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
213Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great-tailed Grackle Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great-tailed Grackle in Texas. See the full index history below.

Great-tailed Grackle Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 14 (95% range 0.00–39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 14 (95% range 0.00–39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026160.0041
2027160.0041
2028150.0040
2029150.0040
2030140.0039

Great-tailed Grackle Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Great-tailed Grackle in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Progreso54820111994
Petronila25520251968
Lag Atascosa23120251969
L. Atascosa Nwr16520251998
Raymondville15520251969
Bayside 314820252005
Bayside12720101994
Encinal12520101969
Bayside 211920041997
Twichell10020251996
Heidelberg9520242013
Kingsville9220241967
Stowell8620251968
Brite8120251994
Pecos8020172017
Dalhart7920251994
Manor7120242012
Lamesa6720252002
Loyola Beach 26720252010
Midland6520251995
Indianola6120241969
Dougherty6120252005
Oyster Lake6020251995
Tenmile5920192002
La Pryor5520171969

Great-tailed Grackle Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.