BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great-tailed Grackle Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Great-tailed Grackle in Texas has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-42%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
212Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great-tailed Grackle Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great-tailed Grackle in Texas. See the full index history below.

Great-tailed Grackle Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 15 (95% range 0.00–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 15 (95% range 0.00–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025170.0042
2026160.0041
2027160.0041
2028150.0041
2029150.0040

Great-tailed Grackle Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Great-tailed Grackle in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Progreso54820111994
Lag Atascosa28920241969
Loyola Beach 214520242010
Raymondville14420241969
Lamesa13220242002
L. Atascosa Nwr13220231998
Bayside12720101994
Encinal12520101969
Bayside 312120242005
Bayside 211920041997
Petronila11820241968
Heidelberg9520242013
Stowell9320231968
Kingsville9220241967
Pecos8020172017
George West7720241967
Twichell7420231996
Manor7120242012
Indianola6120241969
Friona6120242001
Tenmile5920192002
La Pryor5520171969
Plains5520171998
Oyster Lake5320241995
Three Rivers5320241994

Great-tailed Grackle Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.