BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great-tailed Grackle Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesWetland birds

Great-tailed Grackle in New Mexico has surged: up 655% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+655%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great-tailed Grackle Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great-tailed Grackle has surged in New Mexico: up 655% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Great-tailed Grackle Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.4 (95% range 3.4–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–7.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.4 (95% range 3.4–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.03.17.0
20275.13.27.1
20285.23.37.1
20295.33.47.2
20305.43.47.3

Great-tailed Grackle Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Great-tailed Grackle in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hobbs12320251994
Bitter Lake4520251995
Valencia2519971971
Caprock1720251998
Jornada1620251975
Cooley Lake1320251969
Rodeo1320251977
San Antonio1019771974
Laborcita1020191992
Clovis720241993
Deming619741974
Tucumcari519751975
Pep520241998
Floyd420251998
Laborcita 2420252022
Ojo Sarco320171996
Grenville320252009
Gage320241973
Rosebud320251999
Pastura320252003
Mesilla320001992
Pinon320092009
Columbus320251992
Logan320191993
Cebolla220222010

Great-tailed Grackle Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.