BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great-tailed Grackle Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Great-tailed Grackle in New Mexico has surged: up 523% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+523%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great-tailed Grackle Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great-tailed Grackle has surged in New Mexico: up 522% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Great-tailed Grackle Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in New Mexico is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 3.2–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–7.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great-tailed Grackle in New Mexico is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 3.2–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.82.86.8
20264.92.96.9
20275.03.07.0
20285.13.17.0
20295.23.27.1

Great-tailed Grackle Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Great-tailed Grackle in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hobbs8420241994
Bitter Lake3120231995
Valencia2519971971
Jornada1720241975
Caprock1620241998
Cooley Lake1120241969
San Antonio1019771974
Laborcita1020191992
Clovis720241993
Grenville620242009
Deming619741974
Tucumcari519751975
Pep520241998
Laborcita 2420242022
Rosebud420241999
Ojo Sarco320171996
Gage320241973
Mesilla320001992
Pinon320092009
Columbus320241992
Logan320191993
Cebolla220222010
Floyd220241998
Angel Fire 2220182018
Rodeo220241977

Great-tailed Grackle Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.