BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Little Blue Heron Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesWetland birds

Little Blue Heron in Oklahoma has collapsed: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-97%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Little Blue Heron Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Little Blue Heron has collapsed in Oklahoma: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Little Blue Heron Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±670.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±670.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±670.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.003.2
20260.000.003.2
20270.000.003.2
20280.000.003.2
20290.000.003.2

Little Blue Heron Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Little Blue Heron in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cookietown720021968
Welch620151967
Loco519851974
Peoria520071971
Pocola520061992
Canadian420031968
Goodwater420211992
Randlett319911980
Eagle City320101990
Skiatook320121982
Blanco219941967
Mcalester219901967
Phillips219861968
Choctaw220081970
Noble220211972
Barnsdall219771972
Douglas219911968
Chester219881988
Tegarden219901975
Rosston219961996
Elgin220051994
Keetonville220051992
Hunter220061992
Woodward220021992
Duncan220161988

Little Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.