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Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Little Blue Heron Population Trend in Florida

All statesWetland birds

Little Blue Heron in Florida has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-65%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
120Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Little Blue Heron Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Little Blue Heron has fallen sharply in Florida: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Little Blue Heron Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Florida is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Florida is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.003.3
20261.40.003.3
20271.40.003.3
20281.30.003.2
20291.30.003.2

Little Blue Heron Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Little Blue Heron in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Webb2420241990
New Hope2020112009
Seminole Hills 21620222002
Wildernes Pk1620141992
Shawano1420021988
Ridge Harbor1220241991
Dale Mabry1119881966
Tamiami1019741966
Sanderson1020161970
Shawano 21020112004
Doctor Inlet820001967
Sandy820151987
Weaver Stn620191987
Mabel 2620192013
Holey Land620241990
Steinhatchee520221968
Winter Gardn520191988
Indiantown 2520232019
Dupuis W.E.A520181994
Devils Gardn420241987
Bristol420191987
Doctors Inlet 2420172008
Lovedale420111987
Seminole Hls320001967
Plantation K319941966

Little Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.