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Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Little Blue Heron Population Trend in Florida

All statesWetland birds

Little Blue Heron in Florida has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-66%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
121Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Little Blue Heron Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Little Blue Heron has fallen sharply in Florida: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Little Blue Heron Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Florida is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Florida is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.003.3
20271.40.003.3
20281.30.003.2
20291.30.003.2
20301.20.003.1

Little Blue Heron Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Little Blue Heron in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New Hope2020112009
Seminole Hills 21620222002
Wildernes Pk1620141992
Shawano1420021988
Dale Mabry1119881966
Tamiami1019741966
Sanderson1020161970
Shawano 21020112004
Webb1020251990
Holey Land920251990
Doctor Inlet820001967
Sandy820151987
Steinhatchee720251968
Scottsmoor720251968
Weaver Stn620191987
Winter Gardn520191988
Indiantown 2520232019
Mt. Olive520252002
Dupuis W.E.A520181994
Aripeka420251987
Bristol420191987
Doctors Inlet 2420172008
Laurel Hill420252012
Lovedale420111987
Seminole Hls320001967

Little Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.