BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Little Blue Heron Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesWetland birds

Little Blue Heron in Mississippi has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-54%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Little Blue Heron Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Little Blue Heron has fallen sharply in Mississippi: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Little Blue Heron Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Mississippi is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Mississippi is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.003.2
20261.20.003.2
20271.20.003.2
20281.20.003.2
20291.20.003.2

Little Blue Heron Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Little Blue Heron in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Panther Swamp Nwr3520182017
Lake Mary1419901974
Eagle Lake1220242012
Delta N.F.1120211997
Corinth820241994
Tchula 3620241995
Cybur420191966
Diberville319831981
Poplarville319781972
Neely320122001
Latimer320171992
Tchula219711970
Benton220181978
Utica219751969
Lucien220041967
Lake220232018
Tippo220191998
Columbia220181970
Trace South220182016
Okatibbee L.220072007
Fort Adams220121975
Tchula 2219941976
Star220232018
Beverly120001966
Dundee120111970

Little Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.