BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Little Blue Heron Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesWetland birds

Little Blue Heron in North Carolina has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-84%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Little Blue Heron Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Little Blue Heron has collapsed in North Carolina: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Little Blue Heron Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in North Carolina is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±137.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±137.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in North Carolina is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±137.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.000.39
20260.080.000.38
20270.080.000.38
20280.070.000.38
20290.070.000.37

Little Blue Heron Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Little Blue Heron in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cypress Lakes1820182018
Myrtle Grove520241968
Milltail Cr420082006
Beargrass219811967
Grandy219751973
Cayton220172017
Old Trap220162010
Jarvisburg 2220222000
Shallotte119911970
Merrimon120211972
Wards Corner120162016
Hallsboro119951981
Raeford120112011
Broad Creek120081993
Kinston119771977
Jordan120112011
Call119721972
Ernul120022002
Newport120071997
Montague120232002
Hamlet120192019
Mattamuskeet120212021
Genoa119921992
Supply120241993
Jarvisburg119991992

Little Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.