BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Little Blue Heron Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Little Blue Heron in Texas has edged down: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-25%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Little Blue Heron Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Little Blue Heron in Texas. See the full index history below.

Little Blue Heron Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Texas is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 0.78 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.68Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Texas is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 0.78 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.750.001.8
20270.730.001.8
20280.710.001.7
20290.700.001.7
20300.680.001.7

Little Blue Heron Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Little Blue Heron in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stowell4620251973
Indianola1520241970
Three Rivers1120181994
Kingsville919921970
Peach Creek819841968
Danbury720251967
Rock Island720251967
Massey Lake720251970
Winnie620251975
Carlos620251993
Port Acres620251994
Vanderbilt519741969
Oak Grove519991969
Wolfe City519871969
Oak Grove 2520252003
Bayside520031994
Goliad Prairie520162004
Glen Rose419961983
Albany419861986
Bon Wier420251997
Lance Rosier Bith420172015
Loyola Beach 2420162010
Moon Lake 2420252012
Hinkles Fer320251968
Catarina320001994

Little Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.