BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Little Blue Heron Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Little Blue Heron in Texas has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-32%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Little Blue Heron Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Little Blue Heron in Texas. See the full index history below.

Little Blue Heron Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Texas is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 0.52 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.69Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Texas is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 0.52 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.760.001.8
20260.750.001.8
20270.730.001.8
20280.710.001.7
20290.690.001.7

Little Blue Heron Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Little Blue Heron in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Katy2020231968
Massey Lake1620241970
Indianola1520241970
Port Acres1320241994
Three Rivers1120181994
L. Atascosa Nwr1020231999
Kingsville919921970
Stowell920231973
Peach Creek819841968
Moon Lake 2820242012
Vanderbilt519741969
Rock Island520241967
Oak Grove519991969
Wolfe City519871969
Oak Grove 2520232003
Bayside520031994
Goliad Prairie520162004
Glen Rose419961983
Albany419861986
Bon Wier420241997
Lance Rosier Bith420172015
Loyola Beach 2420162010
Catarina320001994
Danbury320241967
Ola320231967

Little Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.