BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Little Blue Heron Population Trend in Alabama

All statesWetland birds

Little Blue Heron in Alabama has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-70%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Little Blue Heron Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Little Blue Heron has fallen sharply in Alabama: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Little Blue Heron Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Alabama is projected to fall about 92% by 2029 — from 0.82 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-92%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±84.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Alabama is projected to fall about 92% by 2029 — from 0.82 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.000.78
20260.110.000.76
20270.100.000.75
20280.080.000.73
20290.070.000.72

Little Blue Heron Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Little Blue Heron in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grangeburg4120241966
Wheeler Dam1520232013
Gainestown Ferry1120121999
Madrid620231994
Foley419771971
Eufaula420132000
Alabama Pt320021966
Summitt219811967
Smyer Lake219861966
Alabama Pt 2220062004
Harrell220071968
Castleberry220191966
Millry220131972
Whitehall220231991
Drummond220032003
Elamville220241984
Bon Secour219941994
Vina219971997
Gastonburg220211996
Helicon220181999
Riverside220072007
St Florian119871983
Hillsboro119751972
Trade119671967
Valhermoso Spgs120071966

Little Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

arkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.