BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Little Blue Heron Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesWetland birds

Little Blue Heron in South Carolina has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-87%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Little Blue Heron Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Little Blue Heron has collapsed in South Carolina: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Little Blue Heron Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in South Carolina is projected to fall about 56% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-56%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in South Carolina is projected to fall about 56% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.000.73
20260.080.000.72
20270.070.000.71
20280.050.000.70
20290.040.000.69

Little Blue Heron Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Little Blue Heron in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Johns Isle319751966
Jamestown320011986
Walterboro320171971
Campobello320222022
New Holland219851979
Dillon219721972
Barton Creek219821981
Bennettsville220171999
Pinewood219991998
Nixville220062000
Hardeeville120241967
Rome119861967
Holly Hill120241972
Coward120161999
Foreston119941966
Wagener120091966
Bishopville120071985
Kiawah Island120221998
Little Mtn119881985
Plum Branch119851980
Nixonville119941994
New Ellenton120232018
Green Sea120102010
Olar120131998
Carvers Bay120001998

Little Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.