BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Little Blue Heron Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesWetland birds

Little Blue Heron in Arkansas has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-78%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Little Blue Heron Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Little Blue Heron has collapsed in Arkansas: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Little Blue Heron Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Arkansas is projected to rise about 118% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1284%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+118%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.70Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1284%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Arkansas is projected to rise about 118% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1284%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.760.003.2
20260.740.003.2
20270.730.003.2
20280.710.003.2
20290.700.003.2

Little Blue Heron Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Little Blue Heron in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Poyen1420061971
Gillett920242011
Poyen 2920112011
Kelso720142011
Eudora620161969
Augusta619991968
Saffell620091973
Hollywood519981971
Ulm520221993
Wilson519961996
Augusta 2520112006
South Bend420231967
Ramsey319961986
Hughes220171974
Crows219861972
Whitton219861968
Stark220051970
Zion219691969
Centerton220112011
England220142014
Nance220061993
Old Milo120001991
Locust Bayou120041974
Stamps120231968
Hope120231967

Little Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.