BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Little Blue Heron Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesWetland birds

Little Blue Heron in Louisiana has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-28%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Little Blue Heron Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Little Blue Heron in Louisiana. See the full index history below.

Little Blue Heron Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Louisiana is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 8.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 0.00–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±140%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±140%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Little Blue Heron in Louisiana is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 8.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 0.00–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±140%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025120.0026
2026120.0027
2027120.0027
2028120.0027
2029120.0027

Little Blue Heron Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Little Blue Heron in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maurice8420241988
Ramah7020241988
Mamou6019821967
Woodlawn4220212008
Ville Platte4120191988
Mayflower2920241967
Berwick2820181987
Natchitoches2719911987
Esther2320241988
Richard2120241998
Derry1919891967
Atchafalaya1720241989
Morgan City1519861967
Shaw1520241967
Lafitte1419901967
Easton1419901967
Kraemer1320241997
Keystone1220131967
Forked Island 21020112010
Junior919911987
Gran Chenier919821967
Derry 2920241990
Frogmore820241998
Creole719801971
Gibson720191999

Little Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoiskansaskentuckymarylandmassachusettsmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.