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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-crowned Night Heron Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesWetland birds

Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Oklahoma has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-54%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-crowned Night Heron Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-crowned Night Heron has fallen sharply in Oklahoma: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow-crowned Night Heron Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.050.000.14
20250.050.000.14
20260.040.000.14
20270.040.000.13
20280.040.000.13

Yellow-crowned Night Heron Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Choctaw319961986
Bartlesville319941994
Big Cedar120152015
Blanco119751975
Phillips120061991
Mill Creek120162004
Loco119761976
Ardmore120081970
Randlett119681968
Cookietown120061970
Reed119821974
Baron120031999
Canadian120061987
Holdenville120231981
Noble120081997
Verden119701967
Erick119971975
Douglas119761976
Colony119951995
Goodwater120171995
Matoy119951995
Tatums120091998
Pocola120072002

Yellow-crowned Night Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.