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Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-crowned Night Heron Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesWetland birds

Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Mississippi has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-82%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-crowned Night Heron Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-crowned Night Heron has collapsed in Mississippi: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Yellow-crowned Night Heron Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Mississippi is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±394.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±394.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Mississippi is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±394.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.57
20260.000.000.57
20270.000.000.57
20280.000.000.57
20290.000.000.57

Yellow-crowned Night Heron Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Neely919741974
Cockrum419701969
Diberville219831981
Fayette219671967
Delta N.F.219961996
Walthall219711971
Columbia219841969
Water Valley220182018
Tchula 2219801977
Lake Mary119761974
Beverly119971973
Dundee120041970
Tchula119751970
Isola119761976
Utica119901970
Lucien119771977
Tallahatchie120111997
Lake120071972
Cybur119861977
Corinth120241976
Panther Swamp Nwr120182018
Macon119701970
Aberdeen119871987
Duffee119781974
Waynesboro119861978

Yellow-crowned Night Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.