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Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-crowned Night Heron Population Trend in Florida

All statesWetland birds

Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Florida has collapsed: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-89%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-crowned Night Heron Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-crowned Night Heron has collapsed in Florida: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-crowned Night Heron Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±442%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±442%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±442%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.100.000.27
20250.100.000.27
20260.100.000.27
20270.100.000.27
20280.100.000.26

Yellow-crowned Night Heron Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shawano1120011989
Weaver Stn620181988
Vero Beach520171997
Covington419861971
St Augustine419991980
Plantation K319891966
Callahan320051994
Alva320051988
Seminole Hls219931993
Steinhatchee219951995
Dale Mabry219801966
Sunniland Gr219751966
Pinecrest220022002
Salvista219781968
Tamiami219711966
Betts220192019
Wildernes Pk220091999
Sandy219971987
Seminole Hills 2220192013
Cross City220001996
Ridge Harbor120121992
Ft Waltn Bch120092009
Blountstown119781967
Broad Branch119751975
Punta Gorda120151985

Yellow-crowned Night Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.