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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-crowned Night Heron Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Texas has risen sharply: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+51%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-crowned Night Heron Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-crowned Night Heron has risen sharply in Texas: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow-crowned Night Heron Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Texas is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.05–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Texas is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.05–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.170.050.29
20270.170.050.29
20280.170.050.29
20290.170.050.29
20300.170.050.29

Yellow-crowned Night Heron Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kosse920091972
Stowell820231969
Moon Lake 2720252013
Katy620251998
Neches Bith620172016
Danbury420251985
E Georgetown419721972
Wolfe City419701970
Port Acres420251994
Indianola320061974
Livingston320251970
Caledonia319851972
Massey Lake320251975
Albany320162016
Carlos320252019
Decatur319991999
Shields 2320142014
Winnie220251975
Arenosa Crk220162002
Muldoon219711971
Lockhart220252007
Town Bluff220091975
Peach Creek219851968
Osage219811981
Pidcoke219971994

Yellow-crowned Night Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseevirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.