BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-crowned Night Heron Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Texas has edged up: up 14% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+14%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-crowned Night Heron Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Texas. See the full index history below.

Yellow-crowned Night Heron Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.16 (95% range 0.04–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.16 (95% range 0.04–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.160.040.28
20260.160.040.28
20270.160.040.28
20280.160.040.28
20290.160.040.28

Yellow-crowned Night Heron Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chinquapin1020232003
Massey Lake920241975
Kosse920091972
Stowell820231969
Neches Bith620172016
Winnie420231975
E Georgetown419721972
Wolfe City419701970
Port Acres420241994
Hinkles Fer320231970
Indianola320061974
Caledonia319851972
Albany320162016
Decatur319991999
Shields 2320142014
Katy220241998
Arenosa Crk220162002
Muldoon219711971
Town Bluff220091975
Peach Creek219851968
Osage219811981
Pidcoke219971994
Athens219951969
Dallas220181969
Glen Rose220162016

Yellow-crowned Night Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseevirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.