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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-crowned Night Heron Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesWetland birds

Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Arkansas has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-40%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-crowned Night Heron Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Yellow-crowned Night Heron Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±115%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.000.000.27
20210.000.000.26
20220.000.000.26
20230.000.000.26
20240.000.000.26

Yellow-crowned Night Heron Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Yellow-crowned Night Heron in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
South Bend419801967
Havana320172011
Poyen220041970
Kelso220112011
Old Milo119911973
Eudora120161967
Ramsey119951994
Locust Bayou120161968
Stamps120151968
Hope120081985
Ashdown120181974
Hughes119791967
Four Lakes119941994
Crows119851985
Crowley'S Ridge120192017
Blakely119981982
Harrisburg119961996
Coal Hill120071981
Maynard119921971
Springhill120102010
Princeton120042004
Poyen 2120102008
Dry Fork120072007
Wilson119971997

Yellow-crowned Night Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.