BirdAnalyst
Guild · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wetland Birds In Ohio

All statesOhio

8 species in this guild. As a group they are -37%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for wetland birds in Ohio. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Ohio is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.47Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Ohio is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.510.001.4
20260.500.001.4
20270.490.001.4
20280.480.001.4
20290.470.001.4

Member Species In Ohio

Wetland birds species in Ohio.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Black-crowned Night HeronArdeidae-77%
Green HeronArdeidae-57%
Ring-billed GullLaridae-44%
Herring GullLaridae-28%
American BitternArdeidae-8%
Great EgretArdeidae+3%
Great Blue HeronArdeidae+41%
Double-crested CormorantPhalacrocoracidae+59%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.