BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swamp Sparrow Population Trend in Ohio

All statesGeneralists

Swamp Sparrow in Ohio has risen sharply: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+65%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swamp Sparrow Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swamp Sparrow has risen sharply in Ohio: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Swamp Sparrow Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Swamp Sparrow in Ohio is projected to rise about 292% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.04–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±114.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+292%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±114.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swamp Sparrow in Ohio is projected to rise about 292% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.04–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±114.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.040.37
20260.200.040.37
20270.210.040.38
20280.210.040.38
20290.210.040.38

Swamp Sparrow Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Swamp Sparrow in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Garrettsvile519911981
Lucerne320232016
Cumberland320171971
Hiram320211992
Wayland220101992
Birmingham219951995
Dresden220241988
Lockport119761976
Bloomville120231996
Kingsway120192019
Pittsfield120121996
Peru119711969
Bismark119851985
Mohican S.F.120042004
Middlefield119981967
Stonecreek120192019
Lenox119801969
Herner Crns119961967
Botkins120022002
Kalida119911991
Petersburg120011996
No Kenton119671967
Harveysburg 2120072007
Marion120222019
Lattasburg119661966

Swamp Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

connecticutdelawareillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotavermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.