BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swamp Sparrow Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Swamp Sparrow in Minnesota has surged: up 191% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+191%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swamp Sparrow Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swamp Sparrow has surged in Minnesota: up 191% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Swamp Sparrow Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Swamp Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.8 (95% range 4.5–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.5–7.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swamp Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.8 (95% range 4.5–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.54.26.7
20265.54.36.8
20275.64.46.8
20285.74.46.9
20295.84.57.0

Swamp Sparrow Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Swamp Sparrow in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glendale3820241993
Sherburne Nr2720241990
Crane Lake2320241969
Waskish2220241978
Wigwam Bay2120231967
Brook Park1720241998
Mahtowa1620231993
Red Lake1620241993
Mille Lacs1520241967
Minnetonka1420241972
Lake Bronson1420111998
Sawbill Camp1420241993
Hart Lake1320241967
Sherry Lake1320221969
Bigfork1320241993
Evergreen1220241968
Ashby1220211997
Jordan1220231993
Cromwell1020241967
Tracy1020242004
Babbitt1020231994
Chisholm1020242019
Blackduck920222004
Knapp820241967
Edwards820061975

Swamp Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

connecticutdelawareillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichigannebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotavermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.