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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Swamp Sparrow Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWetland birds

Swamp Sparrow in Minnesota has surged: up 181% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+181%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swamp Sparrow Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swamp Sparrow has surged in Minnesota: up 181% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Swamp Sparrow Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Swamp Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 4.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 4.5–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.5–7.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swamp Sparrow in Minnesota is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 4.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 4.5–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.54.26.7
20275.54.36.8
20285.64.46.9
20295.74.46.9
20305.74.57.0

Swamp Sparrow Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Swamp Sparrow in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Waskish2220251978
Wigwam Bay2120231967
Mahtowa1620231993
Greenbush1620251998
Mille Lacs1520241967
Lake Bronson1420111998
Sherry Lake1320221969
Tracy1320252004
Minnetonka1220251972
Backus1220251971
Ashby1220211997
Crane Lake1120251969
Glendale1120251993
Chisholm1020242019
Sherburne Nr1020251990
Brook Park920251998
Blackduck920222004
Cromwell820251967
Edwards820061975
Mcgregor820251993
Knapp720251967
New London720241999
Jordan720251993
Bigfork720251993
Nebish720251984

Swamp Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

connecticutdelawareillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichigannebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotavermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.