BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Swamp Sparrow Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesWetland birds

Swamp Sparrow in Nebraska has surged: up 102% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+102%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swamp Sparrow Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Swamp Sparrow in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

Swamp Sparrow Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Swamp Sparrow in Nebraska is projected to rise about 139% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±184.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+139%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±184.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swamp Sparrow in Nebraska is projected to rise about 139% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±184.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.160.000.37
20270.160.000.37
20280.160.000.37
20290.160.000.37
20300.160.000.37

Swamp Sparrow Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Swamp Sparrow in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wheeler Co320251990
Nenzel220242022
Sparta120251975

Swamp Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

connecticutdelawareillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotavermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.