BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Swamp Sparrow Population Trend in New York

All statesWetland birds

Swamp Sparrow in New York has surged: up 148% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+148%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
121Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Swamp Sparrow Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swamp Sparrow has surged in New York: up 148% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Swamp Sparrow Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Swamp Sparrow in New York is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.4–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swamp Sparrow in New York is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.4–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.91.32.4
20271.91.32.5
20281.91.42.5
20291.91.42.5
20301.91.42.5

Swamp Sparrow Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Swamp Sparrow in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rifton919861967
Mcdonough920171970
North Easton920251971
Oriskany Fls820251967
Wanakena820251980
Meridale720252003
Dryden720251974
Nashville720181968
Philadelphia720251980
Cattaraugus620191970
East Java620251968
Churchville620251968
Ogdensburg620251979
Crescent620241999
Milford620231978
Horseshoe L.620171992
Middletown519801974
Duanesburg520251966
Swain520071969
Randolph520181967
Byron520251970
N Wilmurt519981968
Gabriels520251975
Sabattis519831966
Naples520251966

Swamp Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

connecticutdelawareillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotavermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.