BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Ohio

All statesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Ohio has collapsed: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-75%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has collapsed in Ohio: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Ohio is projected to fall about 83% by 2029 — from 63 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 0.00–78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-83%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Ohio is projected to fall about 83% by 2029 — from 63 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 0.00–78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025240.0091
2026210.0088
2027170.0085
2028140.0081
2029100.0078

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Winterset42719831967
Harveysburg30319961966
Wilmington30219961966
Napoleon24120241966
Garrettsvile23719911966
N Baltimore19520191966
Bismark16219951967
Dunlap15219881966
Tecumseh14719821966
Kunkle13920241992
Newport13719941966
Hiram13720211992
Graytown13319841966
Cumberland13120171966
Darrtown12820211966
Ash Ridge12820211992
New Dover12020221966
Rome12020241966
Stonecreek12020241996
Botkins10920191992
Wayland10320171992
Casstown10020242000
Pittsfield9620241992
No Kenton9520241966
Marion9520231966

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.