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Species · Illinois · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Illinois

All statesWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Illinois has edged down: down 23% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-23%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in IllinoisNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Illinois. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Illinois

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Illinois is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 126 (95% range 77–176). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
126Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
77–17695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Illinois is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 126 (95% range 77–176). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
202613081180
202712980179
202812879178
202912778177
203012677176

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Illinois

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Illinois.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beaucoup39220251971
York30120251993
Harristown29420252001
Newark26720221969
Pawnee24420251967
Marshall24020252001
Guilford23920231967
Troy Grove23720251993
Pontiac23320251978
Greenview22520251993
Mackinaw20720251966
Stillwell20220251971
Jamestown20020251966
Bradbury19620251970
Streator19320251972
Sherrard18820251993
Duncan Mills18720251993
Lake Galena17720212001
Fairdale17520252019
Sterling17020232001
Shannon16720251993
Darmstadt16620251993
Compton16120251968
Yale15820251993
Gulfport15720251971

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.