BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in North Carolina has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-31%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in North Carolina is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 6.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 3.0–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–8.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in North Carolina is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 6.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 3.0–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.03.28.7
20265.93.28.7
20275.93.18.6
20285.83.08.5
20295.73.08.5

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rowland7920241990
Sturgills7420242001
Todd5720231995
Merrimon3320231968
Jarvisburg3219991992
Jarvisburg 23020222000
Speed2820241966
Cherryville2419681966
Fairmont2019811968
Jamesville1920241989
Kinston1720241966
Cullowhee1720241974
Jones Corner1720241994
Cayton1720242010
Cypress Cr1520222003
Bullock1420241997
Myrtle Grove1320241966
Pinetops1320241997
Dortches1320241990
Broad Creek1320192003
Supply1220241992
Mattamuskeet1020211999
Hertford1020241998
Congleton1020242001
Oteen920241976

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.