BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in North Carolina has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-29%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in North Carolina is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 6.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 3.0–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–8.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in North Carolina is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 6.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 3.0–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.03.38.8
20276.03.28.7
20285.93.18.6
20295.83.18.6
20305.83.08.5

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rowland7920241990
Sturgills5520252001
Todd3920251995
Speed3820251966
Merrimon3320231968
Jarvisburg3219991992
Cherryville2419681966
Congleton2120252001
Fairmont2019811968
Genoa2020251990
Dudley1920252002
Dortches1820251990
Jones Corner1820251994
Kinston1720241966
Cayton1720242010
Myrtle Grove1620251966
Cullowhee1520251974
Cypress Cr1520222003
Bullock1420251997
Pinetops1320241997
Broad Creek1320192003
Supply1020251992
Jamesville1020251989
Mattamuskeet1020211999
Hertford1020241998

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.