BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Missouri has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-31%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 58 (95% range 29–87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
29–8795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 58 (95% range 29–87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025613291
2026603190
2027603089
2028593088
2029582987

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hayti38720212016
Blodgett27220242013
Deventer22020241967
Warren21619841967
Kahoka220020242002
Centertown17820241973
Stet16819951972
West Plains15320242014
Sticklervill14820241970
Emden14020242017
Millwood13420241999
Rensselaer12320241971
Kahoka11219981967
Woodlandville11020242013
Auburn11020242014
Lucerne10620212016
Cp Girardeau10420241967
Bolckow10119921967
Luray10120242015
Laclede9820241994
Queen City9620222017
Kirksville9520241994
Frankford9420241985
Hamilton9119851972
Mcfall8820241994

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.