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Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Missouri

All statesWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Missouri has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-34%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Missouri is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 51 in 2025 to a central estimate of 56 (95% range 27–85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
27–8595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Missouri is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 51 in 2025 to a central estimate of 56 (95% range 27–85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026603189
2027593088
2028582987
2029572886
2030562785

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lucerne43920252016
Hayti38720212016
Deventer22720251967
Warren21619841967
Kahoka220020242002
Kirksville19920251994
Blodgett18720252013
Stet16819951972
Rensselaer15820251971
Emden14020242017
Luray12620252015
Cp Girardeau12020251967
Frankford11820251985
Kahoka11219981967
Reeds10720251974
Bolckow10119921967
Queen City9620222017
Kennett9520252015
Hamilton9119851972
Tarkio8219891968
Cole Camp8019901971
Washington7819771967
Trenton7820251967
Laclede7720251994
Millwood7420251999

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.