BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Florida has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-71%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has fallen sharply in Florida: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Florida is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.7 (95% range 0.00–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Florida is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.7 (95% range 0.00–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025110.0026
2026110.0025
2027100.0024
20289.40.0024
20298.70.0023

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shawano108720021987
Shawano 239220112004
Andytown24719981974
Kendall24719911987
Clewiston22120232015
Holey Land16320241987
Dale Mabry14519881966
Alturas13919861971
Broward9119731966
Pleasant Grove 28820242010
Lovedale8120111987
Key West7319871987
Sandy6020151987
Sugarloaf Key6020041999
Key Largo5819911987
Gardner5719991987
Plantation K5220041966
Merritt Isl5120111991
Tamiami4719741966
Corbett4420241987
Indiantown 24120242018
Mabel4020111966
Sugarloaf Key 23920212005
Devils Gardn3720241987
Blountstown3620241966

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.