BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in New Mexico has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-19%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in New Mexico is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 4.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 0.00–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in New Mexico is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 4.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 0.00–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.10.008.6
20274.00.008.5
20284.00.008.4
20293.90.008.4
20303.80.008.3

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mesilla15420001992
Farmington7419871975
Laborcita5320191992
San Antonio4819771974
Tucumcari4519751975
Maxwell4520251996
Angel Fire 23520252005
Aztec3419891988
Laborcita 23120252022
Vallecitos2220251994
La Plata 22120162014
Angel Fire2020021992
Ojo Sarco1920251968
La Plata1520131990
Cooley Lake1220251968
Dulce1220252000
Wagon Mound819781970
Bitter Lake820251994
Cloudcroft720251975
Capulin619931993
Hobbs620241997
Cebolla520231973
Deming519751975
Quemado419921992
Logan420251977

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.