BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in New Mexico has edged down: down 23% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-23%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.8 (95% range 0.00–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.8 (95% range 0.00–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.10.008.6
20264.10.008.6
20274.00.008.5
20283.90.008.4
20293.80.008.3

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mesilla15420001992
Farmington7419871975
Angel Fire 26320242005
Laborcita5320191992
San Antonio4819771974
Tucumcari4519751975
Aztec3419891988
Maxwell2620241996
Laborcita 22620242022
La Plata 22120162014
Angel Fire2020021992
La Plata1520131990
Ojo Sarco1120241968
Dulce1120242000
Cloudcroft1020241975
Wagon Mound819781970
Cooley Lake820241968
Capulin619931993
Hobbs620241997
Cebolla520231973
Floyd520241982
Roswell520181973
Deming519751975
Shiprock520241995
Vallecitos520241994

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.