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Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Massachusetts has declined: down 27% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-27%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Massachusetts. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 7.4–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.4–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 7.4–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025188.627
2026188.327
2027178.026
2028177.726
2029177.426

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Newburyport6820221967
N. Andover6320241995
Brockton4820191967
S Barre4620241968
Warren 24420242010
Cheshire3719941969
Littleton3620241967
Monterey3520242019
Gay Head3320241996
E Pepperell3119941966
Belchertown3120241967
Marion2920241966
Wellfleet2920071966
Pittsfield2820161967
Warren2720091968
Mansfield1920241968
Chesterfield1820241967
Wellfleet 21620242016
Princeton1519761969
Hancock1520151997
Chilmark1319831969
Maynard1320221967
Sheffield1120221969
Prattville1020191966
N Orange920241968

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.