BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Kentucky has edged down: down 17% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-17%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Kentucky is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 45 (95% range 18–72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
18–7295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Kentucky is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 45 (95% range 18–72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025472074
2026472074
2027461973
2028451872
2029451872

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Keysburg25120241968
Boxville18719831966
Plum14720241966
Johnsonville14020211966
Glencoe13320221966
Shelbyville8819781966
Levee 27620192007
Million 27620242006
Morganfield7020242022
Pleasurevill6120241979
Buena Vista5420171966
Cedar Grove5320241966
Mcbrayer5220241966
Sewell Shop5220231966
East Union5120221966
Goshen4719991966
Hodgenville 24720232008
Hudson4620241966
Gatewood4520191966
Hodgenville4320031967
Joy4320231966
Levee4219821966
Million4019861966
Bardwell3620031967
Merrimac3520241967

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.