BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Kentucky has edged down: down 16% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-16%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 44 (95% range 18–71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
18–7195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 44 (95% range 18–71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026472073
2027461973
2028451972
2029451872
2030441871

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Boxville18719831966
Keysburg16620251968
Plum15020251966
Johnsonville14020211966
Glencoe13320221966
Pleasurevill12320251979
Shelbyville8819781966
Shiloh8120251967
Morganfield7720252022
Levee 27620192007
Million 27620242006
Buena Vista5420171966
Cedar Grove4720251966
Hudson4720251966
Goshen4719991966
Hodgenville 24720232008
Sewell Shop4620251966
Gatewood4520191966
Hodgenville4320031967
Joy4320231966
Mckee4220251967
Levee4219821966
Million4019861966
Bardwell3620031967
Merrimac3520241967

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.