BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Michigan has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-55%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has fallen sharply in Michigan: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Michigan is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 51 in 2024 to a central estimate of 32 (95% range 15–49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Michigan is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 51 in 2024 to a central estimate of 32 (95% range 15–49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025372054
2026361952
2027341851
2028331650
2029321549

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lapeer34820242000
Bell Oak28020141966
Adair18919951974
Pettysville17319791969
Drayton Plns16019871973
Hamburg15220011981
Holt15020241969
Coopersville14320241979
North Branch14119991974
S Lyons12419921966
Owendale12320171978
Tyre11819961967
Hamburg 211320242004
Fowlerville10620191974
Belding9920031983
Ola9720241974
Juniata9720241966
Richmond9720241999
Cohoctah9220242021
Big Rapids9119901967
St Charles8920191967
Maple Rapids8420231987
Adrian7620181966
Rochester7520241993
New Buffalo7320141992

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.