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Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Arizona has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-78%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has collapsed in Arizona: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 18 (95% range 0.00–97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 18 (95% range 0.00–97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025220.00102
2026210.00101
2027200.00100
2028190.0099
2029180.0097

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Laguna56720231968
Araby32220231992
Palo Verde30520131992
Cactus Forest19220241991
Palo Verde 212920242014
Red Rock 210120242015
Hope 29220182014
Dateland8320241990
Casa Grande6620231989
Coolidge6319851974
Red Rock5420141992
Cibola Lake3420241993
Hope1820091990
Florence1619881968
Willow Beach 21120182018
Mcneal920171995
Vicksburg819891968
Clay Spring820121996
Oatman720241994
Maine720241992
Skull Valley720241996
Gila Bend720192001
Alpine720231992
Black Mesa619951990
Carr Mtn620241989

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.