BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Indiana

All statesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Indiana has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-59%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has fallen sharply in Indiana: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Indiana is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 80 in 2024 to a central estimate of 52 (95% range 22–81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
22–8195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Indiana is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 80 in 2024 to a central estimate of 52 (95% range 22–81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025603089
2026582887
2027562685
2028542483
2029522281

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Packertown32920041967
Ellis20920241966
Sexton18620241981
Shelbyville18620241983
Brookville16520241966
Thorntown15920241982
Newberry14420241999
W Lafayette13920241981
Hebron13320221966
Jamestown13320241986
Witts Station12920242000
New Castle12720242002
Rensselaer11720241999
Middletown11620241966
Decatur11620241999
Kankakee Sands11120242000
Packertown 210820242005
Fowler10520241966
Middlebury9620241989
Wabash9520241981
New Brunswick9520242024
Maplewood9320212000
Montpelier9120242018
Washington8120241987
Spencer8020241967

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.