BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Indiana

All statesWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Indiana has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-60%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has fallen sharply in Indiana: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Indiana is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 74 in 2025 to a central estimate of 51 (95% range 21–80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
21–8095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Indiana is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 74 in 2025 to a central estimate of 51 (95% range 21–80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026592988
2027572786
2028552584
2029532382
2030512180

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Packertown32920041967
Ellis20920241966
Sexton18620241981
Witts Station15120252000
Rensselaer15020251999
Newberry14620251999
Shelbyville14320251983
Jamestown14220251986
New Castle12720242002
Brookville12620251966
W Lafayette12120251981
Swayzee11120251981
Washington10920251987
Kankakee Sands10520252000
Cuba10120252017
Wabash9920251981
Portage 29920252005
Lagrange9820251999
Packertown 29720252005
Maplewood9320212000
Middlebury9220251989
Montpelier9120242018
Cyprss9120251999
New Brunswick9020252024
Scottsburg8920251982

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.