BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Louisiana has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-31%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Louisiana. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Louisiana is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 65 in 2024 to a central estimate of 51 (95% range 11–91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–9195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Louisiana is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 65 in 2024 to a central estimate of 51 (95% range 11–91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025541494
2026531394
2027531293
2028521192
2029511191

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ltl Chenier 263120112010
Forked Island 254120112010
Ltl Chenier45920241986
Gran Chenier38819821967
Creole29419871967
Forked Island29420242008
Brousville28220241998
Rayville26220081967
Maurice23820241988
Kaplan23520231998
Mer Rouge20320081967
Transylvania18420221998
River Road17120241987
Grand Isle16520192010
Mamou16019821967
Woodlawn16020212008
Mayflower15220241967
Rayville 215020242009
Shaw13020241967
Ramah13020241988
Floyd13020211988
Esther12220241988
Port Allen12220242000
Ville Platte12020191988
Carlisle11919881968

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.