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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Louisiana has declined: down 27% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-27%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
97Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Louisiana. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Louisiana is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 62 in 2025 to a central estimate of 51 (95% range 11–91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–9195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Louisiana is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 62 in 2025 to a central estimate of 51 (95% range 11–91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026541494
2027531393
2028521292
2029521292
2030511191

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ltl Chenier 263120112010
Forked Island 254120112010
Ltl Chenier47320251986
Gran Chenier38819821967
Forked Island33420252008
Creole29419871967
Brousville28620251998
Rayville26220081967
Transylvania24720251998
Maurice23820241988
Kaplan23520231998
Mer Rouge20320081967
Esther18920251988
Grand Isle16520192010
Mamou16019821967
Woodlawn16020212008
Rayville 214320252009
River Road13720251987
Shaw13020241967
Floyd13020211988
Ramah12820251988
Mayflower12320251967
Port Allen12220242000
Ville Platte12020191988
Carlisle11919881968

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.