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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Minnesota has edged down: down 12% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-12%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 73 (95% range 54–91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
54–9195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 73 (95% range 54–91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026755693
2027745692
2028745592
2029735592
2030735491

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Money Creek25020251967
Bagley24620061995
Worthington20220252004
Chokio18020251969
Oklee17620211969
Caledonia16720121993
Brook Park16620251998
Sherburne Nr15420251990
Chatfield 215320252003
Big Stone15220121995
Glyndon14720251978
Appleton13520251978
Caledonia 213120252013
Millville13020251967
Austin12920231993
Glenwood12720191993
Lake Bronson12620111978
Le Center12220251993
Tracy11820252004
Greenbush11720251993
Ashby11220211997
Le Roy11020251993
Osseo10820251967
Chokio North10820251993
Lockhart10520251993

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.