BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Minnesota has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-15%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 74 (95% range 55–92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
55–9295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 74 (95% range 55–92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025755794
2026755693
2027745693
2028745592
2029745592

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Money Creek37520241967
Bagley24620061995
Beltrami21120241967
Glyndon18720241978
Caledonia 218620242013
Osseo17920241967
Oklee17620211969
Caledonia16720121993
Worthington16420242004
Lockhart15320241993
Big Stone15220121995
Chatfield 214820242003
Sherburne Nr13020241990
Austin12920231993
Minnetonka12820241969
Chokio12720241969
Glenwood12720191993
Lake Bronson12620111978
Greenbush12420241993
Knapp11820241967
Tyler11520241993
Brook Park11220241998
Ashby11220211997
Le Center10520231993
Frontenac9820241993

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.