Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird Population Analysis

IcteridaeWetland birdsAgelaius phoeniceus

Red-winged Blackbird has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

About the Red-winged Blackbird

One of North America's most abundant birds, the Red-winged Blackbird breeds in marshes and wet fields, the males flashing scarlet shoulder patches as they sing from the cattails.

Size
8.5–9.5 in long, about 2.3 oz (22–24 cm, 64 g)
Habitat
Marshes, ponds, lakeshores and other freshwater wetlands.
Diet
Insects in summer, and seeds and grain the rest of the year.
Range
Recorded on 3,969 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 49 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Icteridae · Wetland birds
Conservation
Least Concern

Notable Red-winged Blackbird TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has fallen sharply in surveyed states: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 44 in 2025 to a central estimate of 29 (95% range 19–39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 44 in 2025 to a central estimate of 29 (95% range 19–39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026332343
2027322242
2028312141
2029302040
2030291939

Where the Red-winged Blackbird Is Detected

BBS routes recording Red-winged Blackbird, sized by most recent count.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend by State

Red-winged Blackbird population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama-88%1968107
Alaska-58%198518
Arizona-81%197061
Arkansas+5%196958
California+11%1970214
Colorado-32%1970156
Connecticut-72%196820
Delaware-22%196817
Florida-72%1968124
Georgia-76%1968109
Idaho-63%197060
Illinois-23%1968105
Indiana-60%196869
Iowa+4%196939
Kansas-20%196967
Kentucky-16%196864
Louisiana-27%196997
Maine-65%196873
Maryland-42%196876
Massachusetts-26%196832
Michigan-54%1968105
Minnesota-12%196992
Mississippi-26%196871
Missouri-34%196995
Montana+76%1970110
Nebraska+18%196976
Nevada-14%197044
New Hampshire-52%196826
New Jersey-10%196844
New Mexico-19%197060
New York-53%1968129
North Carolina-29%1968103
North Dakota+88%196951
Ohio-76%196889
Oklahoma+12%196969
Oregon+75%1970125
Pennsylvania-64%1968136
Rhode Island-53%19687
South Carolina-94%196848
South Dakota-15%196965
Tennessee-31%196851
Texas-52%1969228
Utah+265%197080
Vermont-64%196826
Virginia-71%196877
Washington+244%1970103
West Virginia-61%196864
Wisconsin-34%196898
Wyoming-4%1970131

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Red-winged Blackbird population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 4-57%19946
Northern Pacific Rainforest+78%1970110
Great Basin+67%1970239
Northern Rockies-9%1970207
Prairie Potholes+10%1969124
Boreal Hardwood Transition-43%1968124
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain-60%196886
Atlantic Northern Forest-72%1968151
Sierra Nevada+430%197229
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-14%1970185
Badlands and Prairies+2%1969140
Shortgrass Prairie+51%1969135
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+4%1969129
Edwards Plateau+69%196918
Oaks and Prairies-41%196974
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie-50%1968278
Prairie Hardwood Transition-32%1968161
Central Hardwoods-36%1968165
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas-89%1969100
Mississippi Alluvial Valley-26%196873
Southeastern Coastal Plain-61%1968336
Appalachian Mountains-67%1968383
Piedmont-80%1968167
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast-35%1968164
Peninsular Florida-78%196881
Coastal California-38%1970115
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts-40%197051
Sierra Madre Occidental-80%197026
Chihuahuan Desert13×197336
Tamaulipan Brushlands-60%196928
Gulf Coastal Prairie-46%196948

Red-winged Blackbird Conservation Status

Least Concern

The IUCN Red List rates this species as Least Concern. Our route-weighted index shows it down about 51% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.